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Serbian
Journal of Management
2017,
vol. 12, iss. 2, pp. 217-236
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A
new consensus between the mean and median combination methods to
improve forecasting accuracy
Aras
Serkan, Gülay Emrah
Abstract
To
improve the forecasting accuracies, researchers have long been using
various combination techniques. In particular, the use of dissimilar
methods for forecasting time series data is expected to provide
superior results. Although numerous combination techniques have been
proposed until date, the simple combination techniques - such as mean
and median - maintain their strength, popularity, and utility. This
paper proposes a new combination method based on the mean and median
combination methods so as to combine the advantages of both these
methods. The proposed combination technique attempts to utilize the
strong aspects of each method and minimize the risk that arises from
the selection of the combination method with poor performance. In order
to depict the potential power of the proposed combining method,
well-known six real-world time series data were used. Our results
indicate that the proposed method presents with promising performances.
In addition, a nonparametric statistical test was exploited to reveal
the superiority of the proposed method over the single methods and
other forecast combination methods from all of the investigated data
sets.
This Work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Keywords
forecasting;
time series; combined forecasts; least support vector machines; neural
networks; SETAR; LSTAR; ARIMA
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